* Arguments where the goal (to achieve valid arguments) is to provide conclusive evidence for the conclusion
* The nature of the inferential claim is such that it is impossible for the premises to be true and that conclusion false (Valid or Invalid)
Example:
Premises 1 – All snails eat lettuce
Premises 2 – This thing is a snail
Conclusion – This thing eats lettuce
Inductive arguments
* Arguments where the goal (to achieve strong & reliable beliefs) is to provide the best available evidence for the conclusion
* The nature of the inferential claim is such that it is unlikely that the premises are true and the conclusion false (Strong or Weak)
Example:
This snail eats lettuce, this snail eats lettuce, this one too etc.
Therefore all snails eat lettuce.
For my final blog on deductive and inductive reasoning I am going to stick with the explosion which happened in an underground mine in Moura, Central Queensland. Which I did for my Accimap….
Conclusion – Coal heated causing methane gas to ignite
I believe this conclusion is valid
Inductive:
1) Panel design was different to previous panels used in the mine, and to those surrounding panel 512.
2) A new method was used in sealing off mined sections.
Conclusion – It is likely that a combination of panel design and sealing method caused an irregular air ventilation flow, disabling cooling of the coal wall, creating heat which ignited a build up of methane gas, causing an explosion.
Habits, ‘truth’ or other phenomenon that have grown from tradition or other source and become part of our ‘practice’ that may or not have any evidence base for the practice.
DO THEY MAKE YOU HORNY BABY? DO THEY?
Nothing spells sexy like a serving of oysters! They have long been thought to have aphrodisiac properties. It is said that back in the 18th century, Casanova supposedly consumed fifty oysters a day to keep his libido in top form. But, Can eating a slimy mollusk really alter the body’s chemistry to the point of sexual arousal? There seems to be little/any scientific evidence as to why and if this even occurs?
An aphrodisiac refers to any food or substance which is believed to increase sexual desire and sexual performance. The word aphrodisiac comes from Aphrodite of the Greek mythology, who is the goddess of love and beauty. But, as far as aphrodisiacs go, the oyster claims to be the closest edible thing we have to a natural sex booster. Why? Maybe because of it’s physical appearance? It may be that it resembles the female sex organ and this giving it an erotic reputation. Or could it be the chemical properties of oysters, which include rare amino acids, and dopamine which are said to trigger increased levels of sex hormones in both males (testosterone) and females (progesterone). Also, Oysters are high in zinc, which helps the production of testosterone , this resulting in a higher sperm count.
Regardless of whether oysters really do work as an aphrodisiac, I think the placebo effect and the power of suggestion both mentally and physically is far more a greater factor. Maintaing a healthy living and diet will also contribute to a better sex life….
OBSERVE THE WORLD AROUND YOU AND CONSIDER A PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED.
With all the lager problems around us I thought I’d go with something a little more mundane.
Which is my dog escaping from the yard..
CONTEXT: Describe the problem space
My dogs ability to escape out of our yard has me convinced he’s a Houdini dog. The countless and never ending attempts to keep him in the yard has got me pulling my hair out and my much loved plants which he destroys in his attempts. It’s got me totally frustrated! However it can be a serious problem for both me and my dog. It could lead to some pretty tragic consequences. Any dog escaping and running loose is in danger of,
Being hit by a car
Causing a road accident
Injuring himself getting over the fence
Being injured in a fight with another dog
Injuring/ biting a human
Or being hurt in a number of other ways
I could receive a fine if the pound or council ranger picks him up and am also liable for any damage or injury my dog may cause. I have tried and continue to try to prevent him from escaping. He’s just a big male dog who’s determined to get out and visit his girlfriend on the other side of town. Being a big dog people are wary of him, some will even cross the road to avoid him but he is a big softy, people don’t know this and he can be seen as a threat or a danger. If he is out in public he could come across many situations where harm could occur.
REALITIES: Describe the practice space
This is a problem that not only I face but many other dog owners also. Once the dog escapes from the yard he is then in a public space and a whole range of different issues can arise.
ACTORS: Who are the key actors in the network?
Myself, my partner and my neighbors
The dog
The pound/ council
Motorists
The community
If an incident/accident occurred other actors may include
Vet
Doctors
Hospital staff
Police
RSPCA
TENSIONS: What stops the problem being solved?
Dogs escape for many reasons such as:
Being left alone for long periods of time
Social isolation and frustration
Having too much energy an active or working dog
A puppy or adolescent
No human interaction
Separation anxiety from the owner
Sexual roaming
Fears or phobias – Loud noises, such as fireworks and thunder storms
Some dogs jump over fences, some dig under or chew through. My dog climbs the fence like a ladder. No matter how high we build the fence he gets over it and out. We have even set up an electric fence but he still manages to find another spot to get out.
PROBLEM DEFINITION: What would the problem look like if it were solved?
The dog would stay in the yard and my garden would look a lot healthier.
Motorists would be a lot safer and the community would feel safer and they wouldn’t be so afraid of him.
CONCEPTS: What possible concepts might provide a solution?
Some possible solutions to keeping dogs in the yard could include:
Take the dog for a walk daily
Provide the dog with stimulating toys or a bone to prevent boredom
An extension to the fence for climbing/ jumping dogs or a fence which tilts inwards at 45 degree angle.
Keep the fence free of things to aid the dog over the fence such as the wheelie bin
For dogs that dig, bury chicken wire or place rocks at the base of the fence.
Leave the dog indoors if there are fireworks or a thunderstorm
Try and catch the dog in the act and rouse on him
Or one that I’m not fond of but one that works putting him on a chain or a run.
I really enjoyed reading Hayden’s blog. I liked the way he put me in his shoes and I could see the event unfold. The detail Hayden went into with the contextual lens for himself, his work partner, the deceased and all those directly and indirectly involved made me see and think about how a situation can affect so many people and what each of them contribute to the perception and the outcome of an event.
After reading the news article on Darren’s blog. It left me feeling annoyed and slightly angry. I understand that kids have to go to work with their parents every now and then, but it’s their responsibility to ensure their safety. Allowing a child to ride their bike, while the father operates machinery, in what I can imagine to be a busy, high traffic environment is negligent. He puts the life of his child and others at risk. Also potentially causing workers to become involved in an accident.
Darren’s view on the contextual lens worn by those involved made me think outside the tunnel vision I had created from my own thoughts.
I also considered what OH&S practices were in place to allow the child to be on site in the first place? And if there was anybody of a higher position seeing that there are procedures in place and that they are being followed.
John hit a soft spot with me, as I feel that dogs are often misrepresented and portrayed to be ‘dangerous’ when they have bitten someone. It didn’t surprise me that the nurse came to those conclusions, as many people assume the worst in a dog bite situation. I feel the media have a part to blame as they have made us feel this way by capturing and playing with our emotions, putting fear into us, and targeting certain breads of dogs. On one hand dogs can be seen as a ‘hero’ for saving a life, but on the other they are ‘dangerous’ and ‘vicious’ and when they have bitten ‘attacked’. I don’t believe that dogs bite for no reason. The majority of the incidents you hear on the news involve a child. So, how do we know what really happened? Maybe people should start looking at the owner before they blame the dog.
John’s story shows that sometimes you can just get caught up in the middle of a bad situation.
While this story isn’t an accident, I thought it was a good example of a situation which can be perceived differently by many people, their Contextual Lens.
It was morning peak hour on Monday the 4th of March. When four masked robbers attempted to hold up an Armaguard cash van outside Broadway shopping centre in inner Sydney. Shocked Cafe staff, patrons and other passers by witnessed what could have been mistaken as a scene from a movie or a tv series. A dark grey Audi sudan pulls up in front of the Armaguard van and three robbers get out armed with guns, allegedly one with an AK-47 and one with a glock. It’s believed that the van was about to make a delivery, while one guard is on the outside assessing the scene another guard remains inside the van. The three robbers franticly circle the van in an attempt to get to the money. A shot is fired by one of the robbers, a bullet hole is clearly visible in the glass awning above. The guard is surrounded by two of the robbers yelling and demanding for him to hand over the cash. The guard remains clam as he is held at gun point, He is hit in the back of the head by the butt of the robbers gun and has his gun stolen. The robbers become increasingly agitated that they are getting nowhere and the get away driver starts to sound the horn and reversing the vehicle in an attempt to flee. They get into the car empty handed and speed away….
What went wrong? Why didn’t they get any money? Was it a poorly executed plan? Or was it the armaguard’s training and cool composure that lead to a successful outcome?
The Contextual Lens of:
A common contextual lens which would have been shared by all those involved in the event:
What’s going on? Is this real? What do we do? Is someone calling the police? Do I call? I don’t want to get hurt or die. Hope everyone is ok?
The Robbers:
Why did they hold up an Armaguard van?
Desperate need for money? To live, eat, in debt, pay for rent/ mortgage, buy drugs, child support?
Have they seen it before and it looked easy?
They like the adrenaline?
Did they notice a regular pattern for this particular drop of? Has someone given information on the schedule of the van drop off?
Did they plan the robbery? Some level of planning went into it, organized were: dark clothes, balaclavas, guns and a get away vehicle.
Timing? Were they moments too early? Too late?
Did they intend on using the guns? To cause harm, to scare or just to intimidate?
Do they know how to use a gun?
How can they think or act rationally in a high intense situation?
What could have the robbers been thinking?
How do we get inside the van? How do we get the money?
Why won’t they hand over the money?
Do I shoot? I don’t want to kill anyone? I don’t want to go to jail. Maybe they do want to go to jail to escape life in the real world?
Did I mean to hit the guard?
Why isn’t this going to plan?
It’s taking too long. The cops will be here soon.
The Guards:
Their training and expertise would have prepared them for this possible situation.
The Guard outside the van:
Keep Clam, remember what was learnt in training and let survival instinct kick in.
Listen to their demands. Do I give them the money? How can I avoid giving them the money without being shot?
Are they real guns? Am I going to die? I don’t want to die?
My family and loved ones.
Do I let them in the van? I have no money.
Whats my work mate doing/ saying?
Try to compose my self while being yelled and screamed at.
After being assaulted to the back of the head. Emotions would have been increased, feared more for his safety. He may have been more willing to hand over the money.
How long is this going to go on for? Where are the police? Has someone called them?
The Guard inside the van:
Radio for backup.
Fears for the safety of his work mate. Doesn’t want to see him get shot.
What to do? Open the doors to let robbers take the money?
Cafe Staff, Patrons:
Once they realised or were alerted to what was happening only meters away on the other side of the road. It may have taken a moment to process what was happening.
Is it real? Or is it a movie, TV show or commercial?
Call the police
Are we safe? Don’t want to get shot or die.
Feeling scared. Heightened maybe be the cafe staff/ manager yelling
Manager is concerned for the safety of his staff and patrons.
Staff are heard saying that they felt this was going to happen because they’ve noticed a regular routine of the armaguard van.
Cafe staff filming on phone:
Feeling exposed and at a greater risk of being harmed if the robbers react negatively if seen being filmed.
Don’t want to be seen? What if they see me? Will they hurt/ kill me?
Keep filming for evidence. Get as much information as possible to help police catch robbers.
Get number plate.
Cars driving through as event takes place:
The driver of a dark blue cars pulls over as the robbery starts to unfold, and is seen reversing out of view of the filming. Not sure where they went but they didn’t want to stick around. They may have felt scared or in danger?
Another car drives through as a gun shot is fired.
Did they see/ know what was happening outside?
Did they keep driving because of the road rules? They didn’t see what was happening? Or
Did they fear for their life?
Boy on push bike:
Does he stop or keep going?
Intriguing to watch.
Fears for his safety? Don’t want to get shot/ hurt.
Decides to keep going.
Pedestrians/ Bystanders:
Did they notice what was happening? Some may have been so focused on their day that they didn’t even notice. Some may have kept walking to busy to stop or even care.
For those who stopped. Where they in shock and couldn’t move? Or did they feel the need to stop and help? Were they being nosey? Either way it would have been somewhat entertaining and an interesting start to the week.
Police:
Police were only being informed as the event was taking place.
Procedures would have been put into place.
Officers and special forces briefed and deployed quickly, to the scene and surrounding streets.
Minimal risk to the public
Block off streets. Look for evidence.
Take statements. Use information given by witnesses find and arrest the robbers.
The Media:
The media shape the way we perceive what we are lead to believe is fact/ truth. How we absorb the information forms our opinions and emotions. In this event the media have conflicting information as to, What time of the morning it happened? Some say 8:15am others say 8:30am. When an event can be over in a matter of minutes, sometimes 15 minutes is all the difference. To the amount of people about. Is it really peak hour?
There are also conflicting stories on, How and where the gun was fired. One source says that one of the robbers held the gun in the air and fired a shot, piercing through the glass awning above. Another source says a shot was fired into the passengers side door in an attempt to open the door and the bullet ricochet off the van and went through the glass awning? This can alter the level of emotion we give to the situation and to those involved, mainly being the the robbers. A shot at the door can be seen as desperation. No direct intention to harm the guard. A shot in the air can perceive the robbers as aggressive and intimidating with intention to cause harm.
For me the old saying “Never let the fact get in the way of a good story” rings true when describing the media.
It was lucky no one was hurt and nobody decided to be a hero, because that could have ultimately changed the outcome of this event.
Two of the robbers have been caught, and face a string of charges in relation to this event and numerous other charges from pervious crimes.
This might not be the last we see of these wannabe robbers they might feature again on an episode of worlds dumbest criminals….
michelewhillock 